Asset markets go through different phases, like when prices are on an upward trajectory (bull market) or see a lot of downturn (bear market). At the time of writing, we’re in a bit of a down phase, where the prices of most top assets are much lower than they used to be.
Let’s focus on how Bitcoin’s past cycles can give us hints about what might happen next in the asset markets overall.
Bitcoin's Bull Run History
Bitcoin has experienced three significant milestones in its market journey. Initially, in 2013, it exceeded $1,000 but later dropped by 85%. In 2017, it surged to almost $20,000, and in 2021, it reached a peak of $68,770.
Following a familiar pattern, there was a dip to $15,600 in 2022. Currently trading at around $34,900, it has risen by 124% from the low in November 2022. Many believe this marks the bottom, showcasing the unpredictable nature of the crypto world. As we look into the future of crypto, the journey ahead seems fascinating.
When Can We Anticipate The Arrival Of The Next Cryptocurrency Bull Run?
If history repeats itself, we might witness a new Bitcoin bull run gaining momentum around 2024 and hitting its peak in late 2025. It’s important to note that Bitcoin has only been around for about ten years, so we’ve seen just a few cycles. The market might start acting in unexpected ways.
Looking at the past three Bitcoin bull runs in the table below, after each peak, the price dropped by at least 77%. Typically, it takes around four years for Bitcoin to reach a new high after hitting a low.
Bull Run Period | Peak (Date) | Bottom after Peak (Date) | Drawdown Between Peak and Bottom |
2013 Bull Run | $1,150 (Dec 2013) | $171 (Jan 2015) | -85% |
2017 Bull Run | $19,900 (Dec 2017) | $3,200 (Dec 2018) | -84% |
2021 Bull Run | $68,700 (Nov 2021) | $15,600 (Nov 2022)* | -77% |
*Lowest price so far, not confirmed as the bottom of the market cycle.
What Will Act As The Driving Force For The Next Crypto Bull Run?
The crypto and blockchain world is changing really fast, making it tricky to foresee what’s coming in the next few months, let alone years or decades. But let’s look at some things that might kickstart a new crypto bull run. Perhaps the most pivotal catalyst capable of igniting such a surge is the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
And if a Bitcoin spot ETF gets listed in the U.S., it could be a big deal, too. This could make it easier for big investors to get into Bitcoin, possibly bringing in loads of money.
1. Bitcoin Halving
The Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, marking a time when the reward for Bitcoin mining gets sliced in half. This halving is part of Bitcoin’s mining algorithm, strategically designed to combat inflation by preserving scarcity.
The idea is that by decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced, the price could rise, assuming demand stays constant.
How Does Bitcoin Halving Work?
A group of validators help secure the Bitcoin network. They use computers to verify transactions and add them to a public ledger called the blockchain. This process is called mining.
As a reward for contributing their computing power, miners receive Bitcoin – currently around 6.25 coins per new block they successfully validate and add, worth roughly $226,236.
These transactions get added every 10 minutes or so, following the rules set by the Bitcoin code. Every 210,000 times they do this, the miner’s reward gets cut in half. This happens about every four years, and it usually makes the price of Bitcoin move up and down a bit more than usual.
History Of Bitcoin Halving
Since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009, the reward issued to miners for adding a new block of verified transactions to the Bitcoin blockchain has undergone a halving process every four years. The journey began with an initial reward of 50 BTC. This gradual reduction in rewards every four years plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Let’s track the diminishing rewards over the years:
- 3 January 2009- 50 BTC
- 28 November 2012- 25 BTC
- 9 July 2016- 12.5 BTC
- 1 May 2020- 6.25 BTC
- April 2024- 3.125 BTC (Expected)
- 2028- 1.5625 BTC (Expected)
When Can We Expect The Next Bitcoin Halving?
As of now, most projections point to the next Bitcoin halving occurring in late April 2024. While it’s impossible to pinpoint the exact time it takes to add blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain, we can make a fairly accurate estimate of the upcoming halving date. The closer we get to the event, the more precise our estimates become.
As per CryptoCon, the upcoming $BTC bull run is expected to kick off around November 28, 2024. The projected peak in price is estimated to occur approximately 21 days after that date in 2025, with the subsequent low anticipated around the same time in 2026.
Examining the updated Bitcoin Rainbow Chart reveals a pattern: past Bitcoin halvings occurred during phases when the BTC price was relatively low. If this pattern holds, it suggests that the ongoing crypto bear market might continue into the first half of 2024, with a potential reversal in the second half of the year.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving could emerge as a pivotal factor in driving the recovery of the crypto market.
Capitalising On The Bitcoin Halving- A Trading Strategy
With each Bitcoin halving, the supply rate undergoes a significant reduction. When the demand for an asset stays steady, but its supply decreases, the usual outcome is an appreciation in its value.
For traders looking to leverage this phenomenon, a strategic approach involves investing in Bitcoin in anticipation of the upcoming halving in April. The expectation is that this move could potentially boost the value of their Bitcoin holdings.
2. Bitcoin Spot ETFs
Experienced participants in the crypto market are unlikely to be rattled by the SEC’s decision to postpone Bitcoin ETF decisions until 2024. Familiar with the SEC’s strategies, these individuals have witnessed the market historically brushing off regulatory hesitations. Nonetheless, the importance of a potential approval for a Bitcoin ETF cannot be emphasised enough.
The potential introduction of a US-based Bitcoin ETF holds the key to unlocking institutional capital that has been patiently waiting for a regulated entry into the crypto market. The active pursuit by major financial players such as BlackRock and Fidelity for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF serves as a clear indication of the increasing interest from institutional circles.
Their backing is a significant signal, demonstrating a preparedness to integrate Bitcoin into the established financial landscape. These endorsements carry the potential to influence the broader financial community, paving the way for a new era in crypto investments once regulatory approval is secured.
The Impact Of Rising Institutional Demand On BTC Price
The entry of institutional investors, known for their substantial financial resources, has the potential to significantly impact market dynamics. Their participation in Bitcoin through a regulated ETF could trigger increased demand, fueling a potential bull run in Bitcoin’s price.
Beyond the immediate market impact, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF signals regulatory acceptance, bolstering investor confidence and further driving demand and price.
Drawing parallels with historical trends in other asset classes, such as the gold market witnessing a surge post the approval of the first gold ETF, a Bitcoin ETF could unleash a wave of liquidity, propelling Bitcoin to new price highs.
The sustained growth could be attributed to the heightened legitimacy and the establishment of a more robust, diversified investor base facilitated by a Bitcoin ETF.
Ethereum Forecast For 2024
Ethereum is underlined by its historical performance, suggesting a substantial year ahead. While it may have lagged behind Bitcoin in 2023, Ethereum’s capabilities and broader adoption hint at a promising outlook for 2024, which is great for the future of crypto.
Ethereum 2.0 Transition
Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai hard fork in April 2023 marked a significant shift from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS) with Ethereum 2.0. This game-changing move not only addresses environmental concerns by reducing energy consumption but also introduces a more sustainable validation process, paving the way for a more scalable and secure Ethereum ecosystem.
Deflationary Ether
The integration of EIP 1559 and PoS in Ethereum 2.0 is set to decrease the circulating supply of Ether, potentially leading to increased scarcity and a positive impact on its valuation.
Price Consolidation And Breakout
The validation process improvements in Ethereum 2.0, which include replacing hash power with randomness, promise enhanced scalability and faster transaction speeds. This opens up participation to a broader audience with average hardware capabilities.
Deflationary Ether
Ethereum’s price at the time of writing is consolidating between $2000 and $2100, with $1,700 identified as a critical support level. A breakout above the $2100 level could take the price all the way up to $2400. Remember, $2400 and $2800 are crucial resistance levels, and a breakout from them could take the price back to its all-time high.
Historical Price Patterns
Examining Ethereum’s historical performance in the second year of past crypto bull markets reveals an average annual gain of 613% in 2016 and 2020. Applying this historical trend to Ethereum’s current price suggests the possibility of new all-time highs by the end of 2024.
Ethereum's Unique Position
As the largest alternative to Bitcoin, Ethereum offers unique functionalities like smart contracts, decentralised applications, and NFTs. This makes Ethereum appealing to developers, collectors, and participants in decentralised finance.
Ethereum’s journey into 2024 is marked by technological advancements, the potential for new price highs, and a pivotal role in the evolving crypto landscape.
Altcoins To Keep An Eye On
Solana
Solana (SOL) shot up to $67.97 on 16 November 2023, showing strong performance with a big +53% increase in the 2nd week of November and an impressive +220% rise in the past 2 months. After a tough time in 2022 due to the FTX collapse, SOL has done exceptionally well in 2023.
A positive path for Solana in 2024 is if SOL breaks two resistant levels at $80 and $104, respectively. Then we can expect some fireworks in the Q1 of 2024.
VanEck Outlines $3,000 Bull Case for SOL
VanEck, a US-based mutual fund, has outlined a $3,000 bull case for SOL in its long-term investment thesis for Solana. The thesis highlights Solana’s high-performance capabilities, emphasising its unique capacity to host dApps supporting millions of active users. Solana’s ultra-low transaction costs, high data throughput, and scalability potential position it favourably for attracting a significant user base over time.
Visa And Spotify Partnerships Elevate Solana To Mainstream Success
Visa has chosen Solana for its cross-border payment system, leveraging the blockchain’s speed and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, SolanaPay, available to over a million Shopify stores, facilitates cryptocurrency payments using USDC, fostering broader adoption.
These partnerships signal Solana’s entry into non-Web3 markets, positioning it as a key player in decentralised finance (DeFi).
Polygon
Polygon(MATIC) has recently experienced a significant surge after it broke out of its weekly downtrend, with a 13.14% increase in the second week of November. It is currently trading in the $0.93- $0.94 region at the time of writing. This momentum aligns with a broader trend, marking a 42% rise in MATIC value over the last month.
Despite a temporary drop in price from $0.98 due to profit-taking, the trading volume for Polygon exceeded $1 billion, reflecting increasing market interest. The rise also led to the liquidation of over $1.4 million in short positions, countering bearish bets, as per Coinglass data.
Google Cloud Partners With Polygon
Polygon’s collaboration with Google Cloud is a significant move into the enterprise blockchain realm, aiming to expedite the integration of blockchain technology into enterprise solutions.
This multi-year partnership leverages Google Cloud’s robust infrastructure alongside Polygon’s blockchain technology, offering enterprises enhanced efficiency in deploying and managing blockchain applications.
The collaboration holds the promise of extending blockchain benefits like transparency and security to diverse business applications across various industries.
Why Do Businesses Select Polygon?
Businesses opt for Polygon due to its scalability, low transaction costs, and interoperability with Ethereum. The network supports smart contracts, enabling automated, cost-effective processes.
DApp development on Polygon offers decentralised solutions with security and transparency. The vibrant community provides valuable support and insights. As more businesses join, the ecosystem expands, fostering collaborations and growth opportunities.
Blockchain Trends In 2024 Everyone Should Be Prepared For
DeFi
DeFi has disrupted traditional banking, surpassing $100 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL) in the past bull cycle. AI-driven risk management enhances security, with automated AML and KYC processes ensuring compliance while preserving user privacy.
In 2024, DeFi’s growth is fueled by user-friendly interfaces, cross-chain integrations, and institutional recognition. New offerings, like DeFi insurance protocols, provide coverage against hacks, scams, and losses, adding to the sector’s appeal. Cross-chain interoperability is a key trend, allowing seamless asset movement across different blockchains.
Layer 2 solutions are rising, scaling DeFi and attracting both users and institutional investors by reducing transaction costs. Anticipate increased adoption by banks and investment funds in 2024, either directly or through partnerships, highlighting DeFi’s efficiency and accessibility.
Web3 Gaming
In 2024, the realm of Web3 gaming is poised for remarkable growth and innovation. Fueled by the efficient integration of blockchain, smart contracts, and decentralised networks, a wave of new and immersive Web3 games is captivating global gamers. These games, distinguished by their use of NFTs and blockchain platforms, redefine the gaming landscape by ensuring transparency, safety, and user ownership.
As the market continues to expand, the challenge of selecting the best Web3 games persists. With a focus on sentiment and active addresses in the past 30 days, this article provides a curated guide to the top Web3 games, offering insights into the evolving dynamics of decentralised gaming experiences.
The Rise Of Zk Proof Systems And Roll-Ups
Zero-knowledge (Zk) proof systems are rapidly emerging as a pivotal development in the cryptocurrency landscape. These systems offer enhanced privacy and security for cryptographic transactions by allowing verification without revealing any underlying data.
A noteworthy advancement within this realm is Zk roll-ups, a promising technology that builds upon Zk proofs. This innovation enables the scalability of blockchain transactions without compromising on security or privacy.
As the adoption of cryptocurrencies continues to grow, the significance of Zk proof systems and roll-ups is expected to play a crucial role in reshaping the landscape of cryptocurrency security.
Shaping The Future Of Digital Money With CBDC’s
Central banks are swiftly adopting Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as a trustworthy and secure digital standard, acting as a monetary anchor amidst the changing financial landscape. CBDCs maintain monetary singleness and safeguard sovereignty by enabling effortless conversion between digital currencies.
As we witness the rise of digital finance tokenisation, central banks are reassessing their tech infrastructure for wholesale transactions, exploring integration with market Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) platforms.
This engagement with market players ensures that these advancements align with evolving dynamics and needs, guiding the seamless integration of digital currencies into financial systems.
AI-enabled Blockchain
In 2024, AI and Blockchain will converge, reshaping the digital landscape and propelling a revolutionary future of crypto. AI-enabled Blockchain optimises transactions, adapting to increased users and transactions.
Key trends include Reinforcement Learning in consensus protocols, dynamically optimising decision-making, and Genetic Algorithms refining strategies in PoS Blockchains over time.
Fuzzy Logic introduces nuanced decision-making, enhancing adaptability and minimising fork risks. This collaboration promises a more efficient, scalable, secure, and decentralised future of crypto within AI-enabled Blockchain networks.
Are NFTs Dead?
Despite recent challenges, the NFT market is positioned for a significant revival in 2024. Projections indicate a nearly doubling of market size from $1.6 billion in 2023 to over $3.1 billion by 2027. The current momentum is evident in the highest NFT volume recorded in October, surpassing levels seen since the end of August based on Nansen’s data.
The enduring appeal of NFTs lies in their ability to provide proof of ownership and ensure provenance, particularly in sectors like art, gaming, and customer engagement.
As the market evolves, a shift towards value-driven projects, integration with real-world assets, regulatory clarity, environmental considerations, and strategic collaborations is shaping the future landscape of NFTs.
While the NFT market experienced a downturn, signs point towards a potential resurgence in 2024. The challenges, including negative developments such as OpenSea’s personnel cuts, are overshadowed by the market’s projected growth and innovative trends.
NFTs are evolving beyond speculative hype, with a focus on real value and utility. The integration of NFTs with real-world assets, the need for regulatory clarity, environmental awareness, and strategic collaborations with brands and artists are driving a more sustainable and inclusive future for NFTs.
The narrative is shifting towards utility and collaboration, signalling resilience and adaptation in the dynamic realm of non-fungible tokens.
The Emergence And Expansions of Stablecoins
In recent years, the financial landscape has witnessed a notable transformation with the emergence and rapid expansions of stablecoins. These digital currencies pegged to stable assets like fiat currencies or commodities, have become instrumental in providing a reliable bridge between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency realm.
The stability they offer, coupled with the efficiency of blockchain technology, has positioned stablecoins as a preferred choice for individuals and institutions looking to mitigate volatility while still benefiting from the advantages of digital transactions.
Stablecoins play a pivotal role in various financial activities, including cross-border transactions, remittances, and decentralised finance (DeFi) applications.
As the demand for more stable and secure forms of digital assets continues to grow, the stablecoin ecosystem is likely to see further innovations and expansions, reshaping the dynamics of global finance and accelerating the adoption of blockchain-based financial solutions.
The Impact Of Regulatory Clarity On The Future Of Cryptocurrency
As the global financial landscape undergoes a digital revolution, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have gained significant momentum, yet their legal standing remains a focal point of discussion. Looking ahead to 2024, several countries are expected to refine and solidify their regulatory frameworks for digital assets.
In the United States, a heightened focus on providing clarity in taxation policies and bolstering investor protection measures is anticipated. Japan, known for recognising cryptocurrencies as legal tender, is expected to evolve its regulations, simplifying the listing process for approved exchanges.
Switzerland, renowned for its progressive stance, may witness further refinement of its cryptocurrency regulations, aligning with the Union-wide crypto legal framework adopted by Europe.
Singapore, a fintech hub, is likely to introduce comprehensive regulations promoting responsible crypto usage. Germany, having recognised Bitcoin since 2013, is poised to enhance its legal framework in line with the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regulation. Australia‘s proactive approach to cryptocurrency regulations is set to continue with proposed licensing and custody requirements.
South Korea, after passing the Virtual Asset User Protection Act, aims to regulate the virtual asset market to protect consumers and investors. The United Kingdom, actively incorporating cryptocurrencies into existing financial regulations, is expected to provide more clarity on taxation policies. Lastly, India, though currently lacking explicit regulations, is likely to establish clearer guidelines by 2024, fostering responsible crypto asset trading.
As countries worldwide actively shape their legal frameworks for cryptocurrencies, 2024 is poised to bring clearer regulations that balance innovation and risk mitigation for a great future of cryptocurrencies and Web3.
Conclusion
The future of cryptocurrency in 2024 hinges on factors like AI integration, metaverse adoption, and emerging blockchain trends. The article explores Bitcoin’s historical cycles, predicting a potential bull run around 2024 fueled by the upcoming halving in April. Strategies for capitalizing on the Bitcoin halving and the potential approval of a U.S. Bitcoin ETF are discussed. Ethereum’s outlook for 2024, the performance of altcoins like Solana and Polygon, and broader blockchain trends, including NFTs, DeFi, and CBDCs, are also highlighted.
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